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Macy’s Chief Executive Jeff Gennette sees prices of overstocked items falling soon. “Customers are about to get some amazing deals on products that were hot during the pandemic,” says Gennette, who has run the biggest U.S. department-store chain since 2017.

Markdowns on excess inventory of everything from sweatpants to home goods could pinch retailers’ profit margins, however. Consumers changed their spending habi…